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Calculators · Free

Card draw probability distribution

Calculate a complete without-replacement distribution for a shuffled deck.

01Enter your values

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For each feasible match count, use C(K,x)C(N−K,n−x)/C(N,n). Normalize log-space weights to avoid overflow; sum the requested tails.

Example

How it works

Calculate a complete without-replacement distribution for a shuffled deck.

P(X = x) = C(K,x) × C(N−K,n−x) / C(N,n)

Runs in your browser

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Your data stays yours

Inputs are processed on this page and are never sent to a server.

About this tool

Calculate a complete without-replacement distribution for a shuffled deck.

For each feasible match count, use C(K,x)C(N−K,n−x)/C(N,n). Normalize log-space weights to avoid overflow; sum the requested tails.

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How to use it

  1. Enter your values

    Deck size · Target cards · Cards drawn · Match threshold

  2. Calculate / generate

    Calculate a complete without-replacement distribution for a shuffled deck.

  3. Result

    At least the threshold: 39.949963%

Calculation method

  1. For each feasible match count, use C(K,x)C(N−K,n−x)/C(N,n).
  2. Normalize log-space weights to avoid overflow; sum the requested tails.
P(X = x) = C(K,x) × C(N−K,n−x) / C(N,n)
Example scenario

Card draw probability distribution

Deck size
60
Target cards
4
Cards drawn
7
Match threshold
1
Result
At least the threshold: 39.949963%

Frequently asked questions

Assumptions and mistakes

A shuffled, fixed deck with one target category and no replacement. No mulligans, tutors, conditional draws or overlapping categories. Enter total cards seen, not turns. Consecutive independent games are not one shrinking deck. Popularity is not verified.

Where does my data go?

Calculations run on your device. Form inputs are not sent to a server.

Terms and definitions

Enter your values

Deck size

Enter a whole number; fractional counts are not valid.

Minimum: 1 · Maximum: 1000

Target cards

Enter a whole number; fractional counts are not valid.

Minimum: 0 · Maximum: 1000

Cards drawn

Enter a whole number; fractional counts are not valid.

Minimum: 0 · Maximum: 1000

Match threshold

For each feasible match count, use C(K,x)C(N−K,n−x)/C(N,n).

Enter a whole number; fractional counts are not valid.

Minimum: 0 · Maximum: 1000

Result

Result

For each feasible match count, use C(K,x)C(N−K,n−x)/C(N,n). Normalize log-space weights to avoid overflow; sum the requested tails.

Calculated from your entries using the method below.

Exactly the threshold

For each feasible match count, use C(K,x)C(N−K,n−x)/C(N,n). Normalize log-space weights to avoid overflow; sum the requested tails.

Calculated from your entries using the method below.

At least the threshold

For each feasible match count, use C(K,x)C(N−K,n−x)/C(N,n). Normalize log-space weights to avoid overflow; sum the requested tails.

Calculated from your entries using the method below.

At most the threshold

For each feasible match count, use C(K,x)C(N−K,n−x)/C(N,n). Normalize log-space weights to avoid overflow; sum the requested tails.

Calculated from your entries using the method below.

Matches

For each feasible match count, use C(K,x)C(N−K,n−x)/C(N,n). Normalize log-space weights to avoid overflow; sum the requested tails.

Calculated from your entries using the method below.

Probability (%)

For each feasible match count, use C(K,x)C(N−K,n−x)/C(N,n). Normalize log-space weights to avoid overflow; sum the requested tails.

Calculated from your entries using the method below.

Common mistakes and quick fixes

Assumptions and mistakes

Mistake: Treating a result as valid outside the described scope.

Fix: A shuffled, fixed deck with one target category and no replacement. No mulligans, tutors, conditional draws or overlapping categories. Enter total cards seen, not turns. Consecutive independent games are not one shrinking deck. Popularity is not verified.

Limits and key assumptions

  • A shuffled, fixed deck with one target category and no replacement. No mulligans, tutors, conditional draws or overlapping categories. Enter total cards seen, not turns. Consecutive independent games are not one shrinking deck. Popularity is not verified.
  • Displayed results may be rounded; rounding does not add measurement precision.